Prof. Tom Rossby Elected to NAE

Prof. Tom Rossby of URI's Graduate School of Oceanography was elected to the National Academy of Engineering

For development of deep-ocean instruments and their application in shaping an ocean observing system.

It is recognition well deserved. RAFOS floats (shown above being deployed by Dr. Mark Prater) have revolutionized our understanding of ocean circulation. Discovery of Sound in the Sea has a nice write-up on this technology.

RAFOS floats (SOFAR spelled backward) are floating instruments designed to move with the water and track the water's movements. The SOFAR float was designed as an active device that sent a low frequency acoustic signal to stationary hydrophones that would record the arrival times of the signal. From the arrival times, the floats could be located and tracked. The RAFOS float, however, logs the arrival times of signals from stationary sound sources in the ocean, usually near the study area.

More on the Solar Connection

More details concerning our previous post on the prediction of Abdussamatov of a minimum in solar activity, and hence global temperature, in 2040 can be found here. The plot above, courtesy of Dr. Abdussamatov, shows sunspots versus year along with the secular average with a prediction for a minimum in 2040. As far as we understand it, he is predicting another Maunder Minimum. The variations of the 11 year cycle of sunspots on about a 90 year scale is call the Gleissberg period which can be seen in the graph above. See this for a more detailed discussion of the relationship between sunspots and global temperature.

Beckman and Mahoney provide a nice discussion of the debate between the greenhouse gas advocates and the solar advocates for the cause of global warming. Here is the key paragraph:

One should be wary of jumping to conclusions about the role of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere in procuring a generalized warming of the Earth, given the great complexity of physical processes inherent in the reaction of the atmosphere-ocean system to a change in atmospheric transparency, knowing that such a change is in fact occurring as a result of the emission of gases in industry and transport. To this area of doubt the advocates of solar global warming have been able to add their element of confusion. Maybe we are experiencing a steady rise in the solar constant, accompanying a similar rise in solar magnetic variability, and maybe the greenhouse effect is not the main agent, or even a cause, of global warming. The novelty of the use of the Maunder Minimum in this context is the hypothesis that the time-scale associated with any change may be of order hundreds rather than tens of years, which would be the scale for changes directly linked to individual 11- or 22-year cycles.

Mini-Ice Age Coming?

Given our previous post on the effects of warming on the Arctic as outlined by Oceanus, there is some disagreement in the scientific community about the relative importance of the causes of climate change. Solar activity is pretty well established as an important contributor to climate variations. RIA Novosti is reporting that a Russian astronomer from the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory is predicting a mini-Ice Age starting in 6-7 years due to a minimum in solar activity:

ST. PETERSBURG, February 6 (RIA Novosti) - Low solar activity could trigger a global freeze in the middle of the 21st century, a Russian astronomer said Monday.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory said temperatures would begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reached its peak, and that the coldest period would occur 15-20 years after a major solar output decline in 2035-2045.

Abdusamatov said dramatic changes in the earth's surface temperatures were an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, and resulted from variations in the Sun's energy output and ultraviolet radiation.

The Northern Hemisphere's most recent cool-down period of 1645-1705, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in Holland frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said.

"Is the Arctic Feeling the Heat

Lonny Lippsett from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution recently
emailed us about a very interesting five-part series from Oceanus magainze
on recent expeditions to the Arctic exploring climate change ("Is the Arctic
Feeling the Heat?").  Lonnie is Managing Editor of Oceanus.

The series includes info on some new oceanographic technology: ice-tethered
profilers, polar profiling floats, the Arctic winch  system to measure fresh
water on the upper 50 meters, AUV navigation under the ice, etc.

Here are the first few paragraphs:
In 2005, the ice cap covering the Arctic Ocean shrank to its
smallestsize since researchers began keeping records a
century ago. In the past five years, scientists reported that
many Greenland glaciers are sliding faster to the sea and
melting at their edges. Climate simulations indicate that the
buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will accelerate
melting. 

Are these temporary phenomena or the first hints of long-term
climate change? The answers are critical because the Arctic
will not just feel the impacts of climate change, it will also
cause a cascade of other global changes. As the Arctic goes,
most scientists say, so goes the planet.

In the Arctic, the air, sea ice, and underlying ocean all interact
in a delicately balanced system. To understand why, you have
to follow the water.